Haaland
VS
Watkins
Haaland Vs Watkins: The Better FPL Pick
The call — Haaland or Watkins? This one isn't close — and the gap in my numbers is startling. Over the next six gameweeks I project Haaland for nearly fifty points. Watkins? Barely anything — my numbers give him almost nothing across the same stretch. That's not a typo. It's the widest gulf between two forwards I've run all season, and it should…
What has not being with FFIQ cost you this season?
One squad, picked before a ball was kicked and run for six gameweeks on three transfers — no hits taken. Scored on FPL’s own results.
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Start with the fixtures, because they tell most of the story. Haaland gets a very kind run: COV (H), MUN (A), SUN (H), LIV (A), IPS (H), AVL (A). Three home games against promoted or newly-arrived sides is exactly the diet you want to feed him. Watkins gets the mirror image — HUL (A), NFO (H), TOT (A), BRE (H), NEW (A), then City themselves at Villa Park. It's a very tough run, and my numbers simply don't see where his returns come from.
Now the money. Haaland costs £15.5m and about 7 in 10 managers already own him — he's the template, and going without him over this run is the single biggest gamble you can take. He's the sort of pick who delivers a steady haul most weeks and can go genuinely massive on his day, especially at home against the newcomers. There's no clever contrarian angle here: if he hauls and you don't own him, you're chasing the pack for months.
Watkins at £7.8m looks like the classic mid-price forward who frees up funds elsewhere, and with only about 1 in 10 managers owning him he'd be a real point of difference if he came off. That's the honest other side. But a differential only works when the underlying case is there, and right now it isn't — the fixtures are brutal and my projection over six weeks is close to a blank slate. Cheap isn't value if the points never arrive.
The one caveat on Haaland is the one that always applies: £15.5m is a huge chunk of budget, and it forces compromises across the rest of your squad. Fine. Make them. This is where the points are.
My call: buy Haaland, and don't touch Watkins until the fixtures turn. If you own Watkins now, sell — the money works harder almost anywhere else. And with COV (H) up first, Haaland is my captain too.