Haaland Vs Watkins: The Better FPL Pick

Haaland or Watkins? My numbers say pay up — but only just

Haaland is projected for around thirty-one points over the first six gameweeks. Watkins sits at roughly twenty-six. Five points of difference — and it costs you £7.5m to buy them.

That's the whole argument in two lines, so let's unpack it properly.

The case for Haaland (£15.5m, ~7 in 10 own him)

City's opening run is about as kind as it gets: BOU (H), CRY (A), COV (H), MUN (A), SUN (H), then LIV (A) as the only genuinely nasty one. Five very winnable games for the league's most reliable goalscorer is exactly the setup where he goes massive — a solid return most weeks with the standing threat of a double-digit haul any time City click. And with roughly 7 in 10 managers owning him, not having Haaland during a run like this is a genuine gamble on your rank. When he hauls and you're without him, you feel it.

The case for Watkins (£8.0m, just over 1 in 10)

Villa's run is favourable too — BHA (A), HUL (A), NFO (H) and BRE (H) are all games Watkins can score in, with ARS (H) and TOT (A) the tougher tests. My numbers have him delivering most of what Haaland does for barely half the price. That £7.5m saving buys you a serious upgrade elsewhere — the gap between a £4.5m enabler and a premium midfielder, say. Hardly anyone owns him, so every Watkins return moves you up the ranks rather than keeping you level.

The honest caveats

Haaland's price means he has to haul, not just return, to justify the slot — and LIV (A) in that window is a likely blank. Watkins is the value pick, but Villa's tougher fixtures (Arsenal, Spurs) sit right in the middle of his run, and he simply doesn't have Haaland's monster weeks in him as often.

My call

If you can afford both, this isn't a debate — own both. If it's genuinely one or the other, take Haaland. The five-point gap understates the difference on his best weeks, the fixtures are set up for him to bully teams, and being without a 7-in-10 captain option through a run like this is a risk I wouldn't take. Buy Haaland, captain him against Bournemouth in GW1 — and keep Watkins on the shortlist for when the budget frees up.