FPL Price Changes Tonight: Who's Set To Rise Or Fall

Price Watch: Beat the Ledger Tonight or Pay the Toll Tomorrow

186,306 net transfers in. That's the queue forming behind Tarkowski, and it's the biggest number on tonight's ledger by some distance. Already sitting in roughly 1.6 in 10 squads, he's the closest thing to a certainty on the risers' list — and every £0.1m you don't bank tonight is £0.1m you'll never see again.

The maths of price moves is simple and unforgiving: buy before the rise and the value sits in your squad; buy after and you've donated it to the game. So here's tonight's balance sheet.

Likely up. Tarkowski leads, and if he's in your plans for the next fortnight there is no argument for waiting — the move is priced in by the traffic. Brobbey is next, riding 154,196 net transfers with about 0.7 in 10 managers already aboard — a proper bandwagon, and the kind that usually clears the threshold. King is the quieter one: 61,537 net moves and only about 0.25 in 10 ownership, which makes his rise less nailed but very live. All three are *likely*, not guaranteed — the thresholds shift and a rise can slip a night — but Tarkowski and Brobbey look as close to certain as this exercise gets.

Likely down. Wilson is the headline exit: 37,840 net transfers out, and with fewer than 2 in 10 owning him, there's nobody left to prop the price up. If you hold him and you're selling anyway, tonight is the night — every day you wait risks another £0.1m off your selling price. The rest of the fallers — Beto, Hinshelwood, Amenda, and the sub-1%-owned crowd of Wieffer, Lavia, Norton-Cuffy and Fatawu — are drifting on small numbers. If you're *buying* any of them, patience is free money: wait out the drop and pocket the discount.

The call: if Tarkowski or Brobbey is on your shortlist for the next couple of gameweeks, do the deal tonight and bank the rise before it happens — Tarkowski first, he's the surest thing on the board. Selling Wilson? Get it done before the ledger closes. Everything on the fallers' list you fancy buying, sit on your hands until the price comes to you.