FPL Budget Picks: The Best FWD Under £7.5

Budget forwards, £7.5m and under: who actually starts, who actually scores

Thirty-nine forwards qualify at £7.5m or less. Most of them are decoys. Here's the list that matters, in order of preference, with the boring questions answered: does he start, and what's coming next.

João Pedro (CHE, £7.5m) — top of the pile and it isn't close. Projected around 36 points over the next six, a very kind run starting with BHA (H), and he's nailed. Roughly 7 in 10 already own him, so he's not clever — he's just correct.

Mateta (CRY, £6.5m) — projected mid-20s over six despite an average run, starts every week, and fewer than 1 in 10 have him. MCI (H) first is grim, but he's the value in this bracket.

Calvert-Lewin (LEE, £6.0m) — starts, BRE (H) next, but the projection (about 17 over six) says solid rather than exciting. About 3 in 10 own him, which feels generous.

Havertz (ARS, £7.5m) — a very kind run beginning AVL (A), starts for now, ~21 points projected. Fine. Just fine.

Wissa (NEW, £6.0m) — the quiet one. Projected 24-plus over six, a very kind run after TOT (A), owned by hardly anyone — fewer than 1 in 10. Worth a proper look.

Brobbey (SUN, £6.0m) — starts, but the fixtures are tough beyond FUL (H). Pass.

Barry (EVE, £5.5m) — the cheapest starting forward worth having, ~19 projected, BOU (A) up first. A genuine enabler.

Igor Jesus (NFO, £6.0m) — starts, but LIV (A) next and a modest outlook.

Richarlison (TOT, £6.0m) — tough run, ~16 projected. No.

Gyökeres (ARS, £7.4m) — here's your warning. Lovely fixtures, big name, and our model doesn't expect him to start. £7.4m for a maybe is how good teams go bad. Havertz outranks him for a reason.

Evanilson (BOU, £6.0m) and McBurnie (HUL, £5.5m) — one has nice fixtures and a thin projection; the other is unproven at this level with a tough run. Neither moves the needle.

The call: João Pedro is the top pick — pay the £7.5m, take the fixtures, stop overthinking it. Best alternative if the budget's tighter: Mateta at £6.5m — he plays every minute, he's projected nearly as well as forwards a pound dearer, and almost nobody owns him. Buy one of those two. Avoid Gyökeres until someone confirms he starts.