Brentford FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

Brentford: the value is at the wrong end of the pitch — and that's fine

Here's the awkward truth about Brentford's next six: the fixtures are kind to their defence and unkind to their attack. Chelsea and Liverpool both visit the Gtech, Villa away is in there too — that's a rough slate for goalscorers. But mixed in are Hull away, Forest at home and enough winnable defensive assignments that our model likes their clean-sheet chances a good deal more than their goals.

So if you're buying Brentford — and you should be considering it — buy the back end. Kelleher and Ajer are the picks, both priced in the bargain bin, both nailed, both projected to out-score plenty of midfielders costing a pound more. Brentford sit comfortably in the top half of the league for keeping the ball out, and a starting keeper and centre-half at this money is exactly the sort of thing that pays for a premium elsewhere. Hardly anyone owns either — call it fewer than 1 in 10 — so you're not following the herd, you're getting there first.

Up front, Thiago is still the club's best attacking asset, and the reason is simple: he's on penalties and he starts. That's a floor you can trust even through a tough run. He won't be a weekly captain shout with Chelsea and Liverpool looming, but a nailed penalty-taking forward under eight million is a perfectly sensible third striker. Schade — second on spot kicks, dirt cheap for a starting winger — is the sneaky midfield route in if you'd rather spend six million than eight.

Now the caveat, because there's always one. The most-owned Brentford midfielder in the game is Sangaré, and our model ranks him behind four teammates. That's the crowd buying the name rather than the output. If you hold him, this is your nudge to move the money — Schade does more for less. And Lewis-Potter's projection looks tasty on the table, but our model deliberately ranks him below the others; there are better slots in this squad for your cash.

What changes the call? A benching for Ajer or Kayode — cheap defenders only work if they play, and both are starting for now. Watch the teamsheets.

The call: buy Kelleher or Ajer as your budget defensive cover for the next six, take Thiago if you need a mid-price forward, and sell Sangaré for Schade if you're one of the many holding him. Reliable, boring, cheap — the good kind of boring.