Rogers Vs Groß: The Better FPL Pick

Rogers or Groß? My numbers say it's closer than the £2.0m gap suggests

Here's the headline: my projections have Rogers and Groß separated by barely half a point over the next six gameweeks — call it 38 apiece — yet Rogers costs £7.5m and Groß just £5.5m. On raw value, the Brighton man wins. But value isn't the whole story, and this is where the fixtures do the talking.

Rogers gets about as friendly a run as you'll find: Hull at home, Brentford away, Bournemouth at home, Everton away, then Spurs and United back at Stamford Bridge. That's a stretch where Chelsea should be creating chances every single week, and Rogers is the man my numbers back to cash them in — a solid return most weeks with genuine haul potential when the game opens up. About 2.5 in 10 managers already own him, so he's popular but not yet fully template. There's still time to get ahead of the crowd.

Groß's road is bumpier. Coventry away and Sunderland away are winnable, and Palace at home is fine — but Arsenal at home, then Liverpool and City away in back-to-back weeks, is a rough finish. That he still projects nearly level with Rogers tells you how reliable his output is: he's the steady-points type who chips in almost every week. And at £5.5m with only about 1.6 in 10 owning him, he's a genuinely cheap way to keep pace with a player costing two million more.

The honest caveat on Rogers: you're paying a premium for roughly the same points, and if that money is needed elsewhere in your squad, Groß frees it up without giving much away. The caveat on Groß: his ceiling is lower. When Rogers goes big, he goes properly big; Groß is more 5-6 points on repeat than a 15-point explosion.

My call: if the £2.0m doesn't break your squad, buy Rogers. My model ranks him ahead for a reason — same points, far bigger upside, and a fixture run built for hauls, with Spurs and United at home the weeks to have him. If you need that cash to upgrade a striker or fix a problem spot, Groß is one of the best pound-for-pound midfielders in the game right now — just accept you're trading the big weeks for the savings. Rogers is the pick. Groß is the bargain. Pick the one your budget lets you.