Newcastle United
St James' Park
Newcastle United FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid
The call — Newcastle: the value's all at one end Six fixtures, one Arsenal, and everything else looks like an invitation: COV (A), AVL (H), CRY (A), EVE (H), FUL (A), ARS (H). Our model has Newcastle as one of the league's three sharpest attacks going into that run — and, less flatteringly, only a mid-to-lower-table defence, 15th of 20 for keeping the…
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Which makes it faintly awkward that the model's favourite Newcastle asset is a defender. Lewis Hall (£5.3m, roughly 2 in 10 own him) tops the list precisely because he's not really priced as a defender — he's on corners and free kicks for a team the model rates third-best going forward, so he pays you at both ends even when the back line doesn't. That's a floor with a bonus attached, and at £5.3m it's proper value. Wissa (£6.2m, also about 2 in 10) sits right alongside him — sharing penalties, leading the line for that attack, and usually good for a steady return with a genuinely big week in him against this lot of opponents.
Barnes is the quiet one — barely 1 in 20 own him, he's on corners too, and he's started five of five. If you want the Newcastle attack without paying the ownership tax, he's your man.
Now the deadpan bit. Not one of these players is stamped nailed-on in our data. Most have started five of the last six, which is close enough for me, but "close enough" is exactly how you end up with a 61st-minute substitution and a six-pointer. And I'd leave the cheap defensive punts — Thiaw, Botman, the keeper — alone. A 15th-ranked defence with kind fixtures is still a 15th-ranked defence; you're buying hope, not clean sheets.
The call: buy into Newcastle for the next six, through the attack. Hall first — he's the rare £5.3m player who earns like a midfielder — Wissa second if you've a forward slot going. Barnes if you fancy being early. Skip the centre-backs. Goals are what this run is selling; buy those.