FPL Price Changes Tonight: Who's Set To Rise Or Fall
The call — Price Watch: Tarkowski's Rise Is the One to Beat Tonight Nearly 195,000 managers have moved for Tarkowski this week on a net basis, and that's the kind of number that doesn't leave much doubt about which way the ledger tips tonight. When the queue is that long, the price usually follows.
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Let's be precise about what we know and what we don't. Price changes are never a certainty — the thresholds shift and the algorithm keeps its own counsel — but net transfers of that size put Tarkowski right at the front of tonight's likely risers. Just under 2 in 10 managers already own him, so this isn't a niche punt getting a bump; it's the template filling in. If he's in your plans for the next fortnight, the maths is simple: buy before midnight and you bank the £0.1m rather than paying it.
Brobbey is the next name on the risers' list — around 151,500 net transfers in, with roughly 1 in 10 managers aboard. That's serious momentum for a player most squads don't yet hold. King sits third with about 64,000 net moves and hardly anyone owning him (fewer than 1 in 20), which makes his threshold harder to call — smaller ownership means a smaller bar, but also less certainty. Treat King as possible, not probable.
Now the other side of the book. The fallers' list is a graveyard of fringe picks: Beto, Amenda and Hinshelwood lead the exodus at around 6,500–7,000 net transfers out apiece, with Madjo, Wieffer, Lavia, Norton-Cuffy and Fatawu bleeding out behind them. Here's the accountant's rule: never rush a sale to dodge a £0.1m fall on a player you were keeping anyway, and never rush a purchase of a faller — if Beto or Lavia is on your shortlist, waiting a night might get you the same player for £0.1m less. Every one of these sits below 1 in 10 ownership; nobody's squad is sinking over them.
The honest caveat: all of this is likely, not locked. Deadlines shift, wildcards muddy the counts, and tonight's algorithm answers to no one. But you play the probabilities, and the probabilities are lopsided here.
The call: if Tarkowski or Brobbey is in your transfer plans this week, make the move tonight and beat the rise — Tarkowski especially, where the volume is overwhelming. If you're eyeing any of the fallers, sit on your hands until tomorrow and let the discount come to you. Don't move for King on price alone.