FPL Gameweek 1: The Players To Watch — 12 Aug
The call — Six mid-price picks, one screaming buy — and it's the Mbeumo run that should have you sprinting to the transfer market. Look at what Manchester United's £8.0m man gets served up over the next six: HUL (A), IPS (H), EVE (A), MCI (H), FUL (A), TOT (H). Two promoted sides in the first two weeks alone.
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Our model has him top of the entire mid-price shortlist — projected for around 27 points over that stretch, comfortably clear of everyone else on this list — and yet fewer than 3 in 10 managers own him. That's the gap you punish. He's a proven haul merchant, and this is the kind of run where he goes double-digits twice before the template catches up. Buy him. Now.
João Pedro (£7.5m, CHE) is the safe pair of hands — nearly 6 in 10 own him already, so he's protection more than a punt. Good for around 22 points over six, with Fulham away and Brighton at home to open. Fine to hold, but he won't win you a mini-league on his own.
Szoboszlai at £7.0m is the sneaky value here. Liverpool draw NFO (H), IPS (A), FUL (H) in the middle of their run and he's projected for roughly 23 points — strong returns at that price. About 4 in 10 own him, so he's semi-template. Solid buy if the budget's tight.
Gabriel (£8.0m) is your defensive route in — Coventry at home first up, and Arsenal's clean-sheet potential does the heavy lifting for around 23-24 points over six. Under 3 in 10 own him. If you want an Arsenal defender, he's the one.
Semenyo (£8.5m, MCI) opens with Bournemouth at home, Palace away, Coventry at home — lovely — but he's the priciest here and the run ends with Anfield. Around 24 projected points is good, not great, for the outlay. Watchlist.
The one making me itchy: Watkins. £8.0m, projected for about 26 points — second-best on this whole list — and barely 1 in 10 own him. Yes, Arsenal at home and Spurs away lurk in there, and yes, our model ranks him behind the safer names for a reason. But if you want the pick nobody else has when he bags a brace against Hull, that's your man.
The call: Mbeumo is the buy of the window — get him in before those promoted sides do the advertising for you. Watkins is the punt if you're chasing.
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