FPL Differentials: The Low-Owned Picks To Target — 26 Aug
The call — The ledger stays open. Nobody owns Jack Hinshelwood. Two in every hundred managers, £6.0m, midfield. Our model has him top of this week's under-the-radar list — around 28 points over the next six, and Brighton's run is about as kind as they come: Aston Villa at home, then Chelsea away, then Leeds at the American Express. Honest picture: he's a…
Second name on the record: Mateta. £6.5m, about 5 in every 100 have him. Projected just shy of 27 over six — that's Cunha territory at £1.5m less. Fixtures are only average — Everton away, City at home, Fulham away — so you're buying the player, not the run. Same one-in-9 shot at a haul as Hinshelwood. I'll take a proven striker at that price and that ownership all day.
Now the ones I'm NOT buying yet.
Cunha is nearly template already — almost 1 in 10 own him at £8.0m. The fixtures are lovely (Hull, Ipswich, Everton) but he projects *below* Mateta while costing more, and the haul odds are slightly worse. If everyone's arriving anyway, there's no edge left for me. Pass.
Schade (£6.0m, 3-4 in 100) and Tavernier (£6.0m, 2 in 100) are watchlist. Both around 24-25 points over six, both can blank to zero on a quiet week. Schade's run reads nicer than Tavernier's — Spurs at home, Leeds away, Sunderland at home versus a trip to the Etihad. One good return from either and I move.
Wissa at Newcastle is the trap. £6.0m looks tempting, but Liverpool at home then Spurs away is no place to start a punt. Wait.
For the ledger: I flagged three sub-3%-owned players last season who ended the year in half the top-10k teams. This is the same shape of call.
The verdict, plainly: buy Hinshelwood, buy Mateta. Everyone else waits.