FPL Differentials: The Low-Owned Picks To Target
The call — Under the Radar: two names for the ledger Chris Wood. £6.0m. Owned by fewer than 2 in 10 managers — actually, fewer than 2 in 100. About 1 in 10 own Tarkowski. Nobody owns Wood. That's the gap I live in.
Our model has him top of this week's low-owned list — around 22 points over the next six, best of anyone under the 10% line. He's proven at this level, the fixtures are kind, and it starts with Leeds at The City Ground. Liverpool away after that is the ugly one, then Spurs at home. Two of three are the sort a striker like him feeds on.
The honest bit. He's a quiet-week kind of forward — plenty of 2-point blanks, and when nothing falls his way it's a zero. But when it clicks he's good for a 9, and our numbers make that roughly a one-in-12 shot each week. At £6.0m with 1.7 in 100 owning him, that's exactly the trade I want. When he hauls, you jump the field. When he blanks, so does everyone else's fifth midfielder.
Second name on the record: Foden, £7.0m, about 1 in 20 own him. Very kind run — Bournemouth at home, Palace away, Coventry at home. Around 21 points projected over six, and he can go big — a 9 on his day, roughly a one-in-14 shot weekly. The catch is the obvious one at City: minutes. He's proven, but he shares a dressing room with a lot of talent. I'm buying anyway. The fixtures are too soft to pass up at that price.
Watchlist only:
Stach (LEE, £6.0m, 1 in 100 own him) — projects nearly as well as Foden, but the fixtures are middling and I want to see the minutes hold. One more week.
Sarr (CRY, £6.5m) — fine, not compelling. City at home in that run kills it for me.
Colwill (CHE, £5.0m) — cheap, almost unowned, but unproven and Arsenal away looms. Not yet.
Tarkowski (EVE, £6.0m) — highest-owned name here and the worst fixtures. A very tough run. Pass.
The ledger says my last two calls in this column both paid out inside three gameweeks. This week's entries: buy Wood, buy Foden. Everything else waits.