Aston Villa FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid — 2 Aug

The call — Aston Villa: back the goals, not the clean sheets Here's the split that matters: our model has Villa's fixtures as a genuinely kind run for their attack — and a properly nasty one for their defence. Same six games, two very different verdicts. That should tell you exactly which end of the pitch to shop at.

The run reads BHA (A), ARS (H), HUL (A), NFO (H), TOT (A), BRE (H). Plenty of teams in there who'll let Villa create — this is a top-six attack in our projections — but Arsenal, Spurs and a lively Brentford are not the fixtures you buy clean sheets against.

The pick is Watkins. £8.0m, owned by a bit more than 1 in 10, and our projections have him around 25-26 points over the six — call it a steady 4-5 most weeks with the odd big one when Villa carve open Hull or Forest at home. He leads the line for one of the league's sharper attacks and he's the man their good moments run through. That's a floor I can live with at the price. The honest caveat: he's not putting up premium-forward numbers, so if you're weighing him against the £9m+ crowd, he's the value play, not the haul machine.

The defence is the trap. Konsa (£4.5m) and Cash (£4.5m) look tempting on price, and Villa are a top-half defence on our numbers — seventh-meanest in the league. But clean-sheet potential is entirely about who's shooting at you, and this run is about as tough as it gets. Konsa projects a shade over two points a week; that's an appearance-points enabler, not a starter you're proud of. Martinez at £5.0m is the same story with save points sprinkled on — fine if you already own him, not a buy. Hardly anyone does own him, about half in 10, and for once the crowd is right.

McGinn at £5.5m is the quiet one — owned by barely anyone, roughly 3 in 100 wait, call it hardly anyone — and projects respectably for the price. He's a bench-filler who actually plays, which is more than most £5.5m mids can say.

The call: buy Watkins if you want an £8.0m forward who starts every week and has fixtures to feed on. Leave the Villa defence alone until the run softens — a good back line facing Arsenal, Spurs and Brentford is still a back line that concedes. Attack in, defence out. Simple.