Manchester City FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid — 10 Aug

Start where the queue does. Haaland (£15.5m) is the top pick in our model and it's not a debate — good for around 31 points over the six, which is a solid return most weeks with the usual chance he goes berserk in one of them. About 7 in 10 managers already own him, which tells you what not owning him costs: every blank against Bournemouth or Coventry is a swing against you. He's expensive and he'll eat a fifth of your budget, but he's nailed, he starts, and nobody's hooking him on 60.

Semenyo (£8.5m) sits next on our list and about 3 in 10 have him — decent points likely over the run, and cheaper cover on the same fixtures if £15.5m isn't happening. The honest caveat with any City midfielder is that Pep rotates his productive slots, which is exactly why Foden (£7.0m) — owned by barely 1 in 20 — is the gamble here. Our model likes his points if he plays; the "if" is the whole risk.

The quieter value is at the back. City project as one of the meanest defences in the league and the fixtures are kind for clean sheets. Gvardiol (£5.5m, about 1 in 10 own him) projects very close to Foden's points with far less drama, and Donnarumma (£5.5m) is a perfectly sensible keeper route into the same shut-outs. For a pragmatist, a £5.5m defender who clears his points on clean sheets alone is a better night's sleep than a rotation-risk midfielder at £7.0m.

One flag: Old Trafford in the middle and Anfield at the end are the two fixtures where the clean-sheet story wobbles. The other four are as soft as it gets.

The call is simple. If you don't own Haaland, buy him this week and captain him against Bournemouth at home — the fixtures are too kind and the punishment for waiting is too obvious. Fund it with boring players elsewhere and take Gvardiol as the cheap way into the same party.