Chelsea
Stamford Bridge
Chelsea FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid — 11 Aug
The call — Chelsea's opening six: the attack is the sell, the clean sheets are not Six in 10 managers have already made their Chelsea call, and it's João Pedro at £7.5m. That's the template talking, and for once the template and our model agree: he tops our Chelsea list for the opening stretch, projected for around 22 points across the first six…
Then there's Palmer. £9.5m, projected for the biggest Chelsea haul of the lot — nearly 29 points over six — and only about 1 in 10 own him. That's a striking gap, and he's the man most likely to go massive on his day. The honest other side: he's £2m dearer than João Pedro, and our model still prefers the forward as the cleaner route in. If you've got the budget and want the upside, Palmer's the swing. If you want the reliable body who starts every week at a fair price, João Pedro is the pick — which, you'll be unsurprised to hear, is where I land.
At the back, be careful. Chelsea rate as one of the meaner defences in the league, but the fixture run for clean sheets is genuinely awkward — three away trips including the Emirates. Colwill at £5.0m is the interesting one regardless: owned by almost nobody, projected for a tidy 20 points, and cheap enough that a few blanks don't sting. Sánchez at £5.0m offers similar logic in goal but less return. Caicedo at £5.5m is a fine footballer and a dull FPL asset; leave him.
The call: buy João Pedro now — he's the floor at the right price. Palmer only if the £9.5m is burning a hole. Colwill if you need a fifth defender who might quietly outscore his price tag. Skip the rest.