Aston Villa FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid — 29 Jul

The call — Aston Villa: back the attack, don't pay for the clean sheets Here's the odd thing about Villa's opening six: our model calls it a kind run for their forwards and a nasty one for their defenders. Same fixtures, two different stories — and that should shape exactly which Villa players you buy.

The fixtures: BHA (A), ARS (H), HUL (A), NFO (H), TOT (A), BRE (H). Trips to Brighton and Spurs, Arsenal at Villa Park — that's why the clean-sheet picture is grim despite Villa ranking among the top seven meanest defences in the league. Good defence, wrong opponents. Meanwhile the attack — top six in our ranking — gets Hull away and Forest and Brentford at home, which is where the points live.

So the buy is Watkins, £8.0m, owned by a bit over 1 in 10. Our projection has him around 25-26 points over the six — call it 4-5 a week with the obvious upside that a striker leading a top-six attack can go big at the MKM or against Brentford. He starts, he stays on, he takes the chances Villa create. That's the profile this column exists for.

The tempting-but-wrong move is the defence. Konsa (£4.5m, about 1.5 in 10 own him) and Cash (£4.5m, hardly anyone) are cheap and nailed, but you're buying clean sheets against a fixture list that doesn't want to give you any. Fine as fifth defenders you never intend to start every week; don't build around them. Same logic for Martinez at £5.0m — a good keeper, save points will keep his weeks respectable, but you're not getting many shutout bonuses through Brighton, Arsenal and Spurs.

The quiet one is McGinn at £5.5m, owned by roughly 3 in 100. Steady mid-teens points across the run, always on the pitch, occasionally chips in. He's a bench-slot upgrade rather than a headline, but at that price he's honest work — which is more than most £5.5m midfielders offer.

The honest other side: Watkins at 1 in 10 ownership means the crowd hasn't rushed in, and Brighton away first up could mean a slow start before the run softens.

The call: buy Watkins now and ride him through GW6 — the fixtures reward the attack, not the back line. McGinn if you need a cheap body who plays. Leave the Villa defence alone until the fixtures turn.