Arsenal FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid — 4 Aug

I'm a defence-first man by temperament, and pleasingly the model agrees. Gabriel (£8.0m) is the headline pick — a centre-back who never gets rested, attacks every set piece, and sits behind a defence with a favourable clean-sheet run. Our projections have him near 24 points across the six, comfortably the best Arsenal return, and about 3 in 10 managers already own him. He's the closest thing to a nailed-on double-digit fortnight the position offers. Raya (£6.0m) is the same argument in gloves — plays every minute, roughly 20 points projected — though a third of the game already has him, so no edge, just safety. I can live with safety.

Up the other end, Gyökeres (£7.5m) is the model's preferred attacker, and at just over 1 in 10 owned he's not yet template. Honest caveat: he's new to the league and the projected returns — solid, around 18 over six — say steady contributor rather than instant monster. But he leads the line for the division's best attack against Coventry, Sunderland and Leeds. Goals will come.

The quiet value sits in midfield. Ødegaard (£6.5m) and Eze (£6.5m) both project close to 20 points and almost nobody owns them — 4 in 10... no, sorry, 4 in a *hundred*. Barely anyone. The catch, and it's a real one: Arsenal's attacking slots are crowded, and two £6.5m midfielders fighting for the same creative touches means someone gets subbed off on 60 most weeks. That's why the model puts them behind Gyökeres despite tidy numbers. Nice differentials for the brave; not the foundation.

The call: buy Gabriel first — he's the highest-projected Arsenal player, plays every minute, and clean sheets are queuing up. If you've room for a second, Gyökeres over the midfielders. Ignore the noise, take the defender.