Arsenal
Emirates Stadium
Arsenal FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid — 31 Jul
The call — Arsenal: the boring double-up that wins you September Our model ranks Arsenal's defence the meanest in the league and their attack the sharpest — first in both — and then hands them Coventry (H), Aston Villa (A), Chelsea (H), Sunderland (A), Brighton (A) and Leeds (H) to open the season. When the best team gets the kindest run, you don't…
Gabriel at £8.0m is the pick, and it's not close. He tops our Arsenal list — projected around 23-24 points over the six, which for a defender means clean sheets stacking up plus his usual menace at set pieces. He plays every minute of every game; nobody's hooking a centre-back on 60. About 3 in 10 managers already own him, so he's template, but template exists for a reason. Raya (£6.0m) is the alternative if the budget's tight — a shade under 20 points projected, owned by about 3 in 10 as well — but if you're only taking one, take the one who can score at a corner.
The attack is where romance creeps in, so let's be careful. Gyökeres at £7.5m is the model's preferred forward route — around 18 points over the run, owned by barely 1 in 10, and a striker in the league's best attack facing Coventry, Sunderland and Leeds should eat. The honest caveat: he's new, and new signings sometimes take a month to get going. Eze and Ødegaard both sit at £6.5m with similar projections (Eze nudging 20, Ødegaard 19), and hardly anyone owns either — fewer than 1 in 20. Tempting numbers, but Arsenal's midfield is crowded, and crowded midfields mean rotation. Two £6.5m midfielders splitting minutes is how you end up staring at a bench blank in GW4.
The only real argument against any of this is price concentration — Gabriel plus a forward is £15.5m in one team, and Chelsea at home in GW3 is the one fixture where the clean sheet isn't nailed. Fine. That's one game out of six.
The call: Gabriel is a buy for everyone, now, before the price rises start. Pair him with Gyökeres if you want the attacking angle; leave the midfielders until we've seen who actually starts. Defence first. It usually is.