Virgil Vs Rice

Virgil van Dijk at 6.5 is priced like an attacker but earns like a defender — and right now that's fine.

First, an honest note: we were asked to weigh him against Rice, but Rice isn't in our pool, so there's no like-for-like read to give you. What we can do is tell you what the numbers say about the Liverpool captain over the opening six.

The read. Our model likes the run in front of him: Newcastle away, then Forest at home, Ipswich away, Fulham at home, Bournemouth away, and City at Anfield to close it out. Four of those six are the kind of games where a good defence keeps the ball out, and the projection reflects it — van Dijk is on for something in the mid-20s across the six weeks, which is a shade over four a game. For a defender, that's steady rather than spectacular, and steady is exactly the point: clean sheets, appearance points, the odd header from a corner. About 1.5 in 10 managers have him, so he's neither a crowd pick nor a bold one — you're not chasing the pack, but you're not out on a limb either.

The nuance. Two things stop this being a slam dunk. One, 6.5 is real money for a defender, and you're paying it for clean-sheet potential, not for goals — he can pop up with one on his day, but if you're buying him hoping for big attacking hauls, you've bought the wrong player. Two, the run isn't uniformly soft. Newcastle away first up and City at home last are proper tests, and the projection is an average across all six, not a promise of points in each. Expect the returns to be lumpy — a couple of blanks in there wouldn't break the case.

FPL VERDICT: buy. At 6.5 with that fixture list, van Dijk is a set-and-forget defensive pick for the opening stretch — reliable minutes, a genuinely good chance of clean sheets against Forest, Ipswich, Fulham and Bournemouth, and enough aerial threat to surprise you once or twice. Don't captain him; that's not what he's for. But if you were deciding between him and a cheaper punt at the back, our numbers back paying up here and spending your bravery further forward.