MCI: Team Insight

Manchester City open with one of the kindest runs in the game, and our model wants you paying up for it.

The read is simple. Over the next six gameweeks our model has City as the meanest defence in the league and the second-sharpest attack, with fixtures that lean their way at both ends: Bournemouth at home, Palace away, Coventry at home, then United away, Sunderland at home and Liverpool away.

Haaland sits top of our list and it isn't close. We've got him for high-30s points across those six games — comfortably north of six a week — and on a good afternoon he can win you a gameweek on his own. At 15.5 he's the most expensive asset in the game, and roughly 7 in 10 managers already have him, so this isn't a clever move; it's the default one, and our numbers say the default is right.

After him our order goes Semenyo (8.5, around 2 in 10 managers, mid-to-high 20s over the run), then Foden at 7.0. Foden is the interesting one for value: our model has him only a couple of points behind Semenyo for 1.5 less, and barely anyone owns him — well under 1 in 10. Then the defenders. Gvardiol at 5.5 is our preferred route into that back line, with Matheus N. at 6.0 just behind him. Both are lightly owned, both are about clean sheets rather than fireworks, and Gvardiol gives you the cheaper way in.

The honest caveat: the run is front-loaded. Bournemouth, Palace and Coventry are where the clean sheets and the big hauls should come; United away and especially Liverpool away are a different proposition, and our defensive numbers across the whole window are flattered by the easy start. City's defence is also a crowded, rotation-prone area — picking the right one is a genuine coin-flip, which is part of why we rate the cheaper option.

FPL verdict. Haaland: captain, and captain him early while the fixtures are soft — Bournemouth at home is as good a start as you'll get. Foden at 7.0: buy, the standout value here and a cheap way into an attack we rate near the top of the league. Semenyo: hold if you have him, no rush to pay 8.5 when Foden does similar work. Gvardiol at 5.5: watch closely and be ready to jump for the home games against Coventry and Sunderland.