CHE: Team Insight

Chelsea's opening six look kind for goals — but the clean sheets are less of a sure thing.

The read. Our model has Chelsea inside the top third of the league for attacking output and, more strikingly, among the five meanest defences over the next six. The fixture list — Fulham away, Brighton at home, Arsenal away, Hull at home, Brentford away, Bournemouth at home — reads as a friendly run for the forwards, with only the Arsenal trip standing out as a proper test.

Top of our list is João Pedro at £7.5m. Our projections have him ticking along at three to four points a week over the run, which for a £7.5m forward is honest value, and he's the kind of striker who can turn a Hull or Bournemouth home game into a double-digit week. He's already popular though — roughly 5 in 10 managers have him, so this is more about not being left behind than stealing a march.

Palmer at £9.5m is projected a shade higher — closer to five a week — and hardly anyone has him by his standards, around 1 in 10. Our model still nudges Pedro ahead, largely on price and how the attacking picks stack up around him, but Palmer is a legitimate alternative if you can fund the extra £2m.

At the back, Colwill at £5.0m is the value play. Our projections have him around three to four a week, which is strong for a £5m defender, and virtually nobody owns him — well under 1 in 10. Sánchez at £5.0m is the cheaper route into the same defence, if less exciting. Caicedo at £5.5m is a fine filler but shouldn't be taking a slot from the bigger threats.

The caveat. The attacking fixtures are better than the defensive ones. Our model rates this defence highly on quality, but the specific run only offers average clean-sheet chances — Fulham away, Arsenal away and Brentford away are not games you bank shutouts on. So back the goals with more confidence than the blanks, and expect the Colwill returns to be lumpy rather than steady.

FPL VERDICT: Buy João Pedro. £7.5m for a starting striker with this run is a fair price, and the Hull and Bournemouth home games are where he pays you back. Colwill is a genuine buy at £5.0m too. Palmer: hold or upgrade to if you have the cash. Caicedo and Sánchez: watch.