LIV: Team Insight

Liverpool's first six weeks look kind at both ends — and the model likes the cheap route in.

The read. Our model has Liverpool with one of the three sharpest attacks in the league and the second meanest defence over the opening six games, and the fixture list backs it up: Newcastle away, Nottingham Forest at home, Ipswich away, Fulham at home, Bournemouth away, then Manchester City at home. That's a genuinely friendly run for goals *and* clean sheets, with only the last one looking awkward.

Top of our list is Szoboszlai (£7.0m). The model has him good for around four a game across the run — steady rather than spectacular — but he's the sort who can rack up a big one when the goals and assists land his way. Nearly half of all managers already have him, so roughly 4-5 in 10; you're not getting a jump on anyone, you're just avoiding falling behind.

Next is Van Dijk (£6.5m), and this is where the value sits. Our model likes him slightly more than any of the forwards over these six, purely off clean-sheet potential, and only about 2 in 10 managers own him. At that price, in a defence rated this highly, he's the pick most people are missing.

Isak (£9.0m) projects similarly on raw points — comfortably four a game — and obviously carries the biggest single-week upside of anyone here. But note he sits *below* Van Dijk in our order, and that's deliberate: Liverpool's attacking returns are spread across a lot of expensive options, which caps how reliably any one of them cashes in. Around 1 in 10 own him. Wirtz (£7.5m) is a touch behind on points, similar low ownership. Alisson (£5.5m) is barely owned and quietly sensible given the defensive rating.

The caveat. Newcastle away first up is not a gimme, and City at home closes the window — so the middle four games are doing most of the heavy lifting here. If you're buying for the fixtures, buy for Forest, Ipswich, Fulham and Bournemouth, not for the bookends.

FPL VERDICT: Buy Van Dijk at £6.5m — the clean-sheet case is strong and most managers haven't got there yet. Hold Szoboszlai if you already own him; he's fine, not urgent. Watch Isak — the upside is real, but £9.0m in a crowded attack is a lot to commit before you've seen where the returns settle.