AVL: Team Insight

Aston Villa's attack is set up well for the opening six; their defence is set up badly.

The read: our model rates Villa as one of the league's sharper attacks — comfortably top-six on that measure across the first six gameweeks — and the fixture run leans in their favour going forward. Brighton away and Arsenal at home are awkward openers, but Hull away, Forest at home and Brentford at home are the kind of games our projections treat as genuine returns opportunities.

That makes Ollie Watkins (£8.0m, 12.5% owned) the clear lead. He tops our preference order for Villa, and he's projected for just under 30 points over the six — strong for the price, and he's the one player who benefits from every part of that fixture run rather than needing a clean sheet to score.

The nuance: attack and defence point in opposite directions here. Our model ranks Villa's defence in the better half of the league on quality, but the schedule is unkind for shutouts — trips to Brighton and Tottenham plus Arsenal at home mean clean-sheet chances are thin early. That's why Emiliano Martinez (£5.0m, 4.2%) sits ahead of the outfield defenders in our order: at that price, a keeper facing busy games can still bank save points when the clean sheets don't come. Matty Cash (£4.5m, 8.2%) is the more appealing of the two defenders, offering a bit more going forward than Ezri Konsa (£4.5m), whose 19.2% ownership looks generous given how tough the clean-sheet run reads.

One honest caveat on John McGinn (£5.5m, 2.8%): his raw projection is healthy, but our model still places him below Watkins and Martinez. Midfield returns at Villa are less reliable than the striker's, and cheap enablers with modest ceilings can crowd out a slot better used on a bigger threat.

FPL VERDICT — Buy Watkins. At £8.0m with only 12.5% ownership, he's the cleanest way to access a top-six attack over a run that improves sharply after the Arsenal game; a captaincy case builds around Hull away and Forest at home rather than the opening fortnight. Martinez is a reasonable budget keeper if you accept saves over shutouts. Watch, don't rush, on Cash — and Konsa at 19.2% is the one to consider moving on if you need funds elsewhere.