Teams To Avoid — The Toughest Upcoming Fixtures

Six teams, one message: the next six weeks are unkind to defences

The read. Our model flags a cluster of sides whose opening run makes clean sheets a bad bet. Hull (Man Utd, Coventry, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Newcastle, Everton), Coventry (Arsenal, Hull, Man City, Brighton, Nottingham Forest, Newcastle), Bournemouth (Man City, Everton, Newcastle, Brentford, Liverpool, Chelsea), Ipswich, Fulham and Sunderland all rate as very tough for shutouts across the first six gameweeks. For Hull, Coventry and Bournemouth the attacking outlook is also poor; Ipswich, Fulham and Sunderland at least land in average territory for goals and assists.

That reshapes where the value sits. Bournemouth's Rayan is the model's clear favourite of this group at £6.5m — projected for roughly the mid-20s in points over the six, with genuine attacking upside despite the fixtures, and owned by under 4% of managers. Behind him, defender Truffert (£5.5m) and midfielder Tavernier (£6.0m) are the next names, but neither offers the same ceiling. From Sunderland, Mukiele (£5.5m) leads the list, with Xhaka (£5.5m) close behind; both are cheap routes into a side with a workable attacking run, even if the back line is projected to leak.

The nuance. Note where our model puts its cheap defenders: Hull's Hughes, Ipswich's Diop and Davis, Coventry's Thomas and van Ewijk all sit at £4.0m and all project in the low teens. Those aren't recommendations — they're bench-fodder pricing in a very tough clean-sheet run. Diop's 21.3% ownership and van Ewijk's 17.0% mean a lot of squads are carrying a defender the projections don't rate for shutouts. Cheap enablers are legitimate if they never start; they're a problem if they do. Note too that the forwards here — Hull's Destan and McBurnie, Ipswich's Hirst, Coventry's Wright — all project in the mid-teens across six games. That's replacement level, not a differential.

FPL VERDICT.

Rayan (£6.5m, BOU MID): watch, leaning buy. Best projection and upside in this group, low ownership, but the fixtures cap the ceiling.
Mukiele (£5.5m) / Xhaka (£5.5m, SUN): watch. Cheap, playable, but not clean-sheet assets.
£4.0m defenders at Hull, Ipswich, Coventry: hold only as non-starting enablers. If they're in your XI, upgrade.
Hull and Coventry attackers: avoid. Tough for both goals and shutouts.
Captaincy: none of these six.